Economic Downturn? I Don't See It

Friday, August 3rd 2018

So we are supposedly in for an economic downturn, are we? Well so says Sir John Key on the back of trying to stimulate some “news” from his attendance at the recent National Party’s conference.

Most of us love John Key but let’s be real; the media loves bad news and will jump at any opportunity to try to put a boot into the economy. Why do we keep trying to create reasons the economy “might” slow down, when we should be looking to keep the momentum moving for as long as possible?

This cycle has been longer and slower than the previous “boom and busts” and as I have continually stated the real estate market volumes also strongly support this more evenly paced growth. Our domestic economy is humming, and this is built upon housing gains and record immigration.

The good news is that although Sir John Key got his “two cents worth”, the reality is that even the gloomiest of economists only see New Zealand’s growth rate slowing to two percent this year. That is a long way from a recession or a typical economic downturn for this country. There is near consensus amongst economists that the next six to nine months will be the lowest point in the cycle. The Hawke’s Bay economy is riding a massive wave and it would take a large external shock to upset this momentum.

I love bumping into people who have recently moved to Hawke’s Bay and hearing about how they came to discover the Bay. To pull up sticks and move your family to a new location must take a fair bit of research and homework. The most recent person I have spoken to was a new chiropractor who had come from Melbourne. I thought maybe he had come for the job but no, he had been exposed to Hawke’s Bay whilst visiting family and loved it so much he decided to move his family here. He and his wife have just settled on a house in Bay View, and love the weather, the traffic, the cuisine and the amazing lifestyle. They are starting a family and can’t think of a better place to raise their brood. I said “I love Melbourne” and he said “so does he”, especially now that he can visit as a tourist and doesn’t have to live and raise his family there.

So that is how I see it. Some could say I am slightly biased, but it is hard to argue when so many new people are making Hawke’s Bay their home and love the decision they have made. The domestic economy is booming and if you don’t listen to people trying to pull it back, keep positive and keep the momentum rolling, I believe we are in for a few more years yet. So, sorry Sir John but I don’t agree with you. The government is doing well with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern at the helm as a new-age soon to be working-mother.

Have a great week, keep smiling and riding the wave. Let’s not preach “doom and gloom” as it can be a self-fulfilling prophecy.